Ask KELLY · decision door
Decide under uncertainty
KELLY can be wrong. Answers are process, not ground truth. Check Glass Lab proof when stakes are high. Public chat never writes durable KELLY memory.
Composer · primary workflow
State the decision. Optional user % opens a dual-lane Superforecasting path.
Primary instrument · decision lens
Ask KELLY — answered by the engine
State the decision, horizon, stakes, and what would settle it. KELLY returns a bounded answer, optional dual-lane probability, and a proof path — public users never write Prime truth.
ACT
Bounded next step when evidence and downside allow.
TEST
Small reversible probe when more reality is needed.
WAIT
Hold when intervention would harm more than help.
Better prompt shape: decision + horizon + stakes + settlement criteria. Optional: set your probability so Superforecasting can compare dual lanes later.
Talk it through with KELLY
No hidden answer. No trust-me.
KELLY never promises 100% accuracy on uncertain reality.
Your question and forecast are request context, not ground truth. KELLY learns from approved data APIs, causal closure, settlement, calibration, and replay.
Prime KELLY is worldwide. Private location only improves this browser's relevance lane; it does not define truth or write memory.
This stays in the user lane. It can guide the question, but it never becomes KELLY's truth.
This stays in your browser. It helps local weather, election, policy, and place questions choose better sources. Prime remains worldwide and learns only from closed public reality.
Advanced request options
Production answers are real-only - alternate fallback requests are stripped server-side.
KELLY answer
Ask a question to see KELLY's bounded answer.
Private watch lane
Questions KELLY is still watching for you
This list stays in this browser. KELLY Prime may learn from approved reality loops and outcomes, but this private lane does not write user questions into ground truth.
Watching KELLY Prime stream.
Ask KELLY a question, then choose "Keep watching privately" to hold it here while reality updates.
Private watch lane
Questions KELLY is still watching for you
This list stays in this browser. KELLY Prime may learn from approved reality loops and outcomes, but this private lane does not write user questions into ground truth.
Watching KELLY Prime stream.
Ask KELLY a question, then choose "Keep watching privately" to hold it here while reality updates.
Ask with stakes
Decision, horizon, place/sector, and what would count as settled.
Bounded answer
Facts vs forecast, ACT / TEST / WAIT, and what would change the answer.
Proof path
Sources, receipts, replay, settlement — or an honest watch/degrade state.
No public write
Your question guides a response. Public users do not write prime memory.
Superforecasting handoff
When you supply a probability, keep it separate from KELLY. Open/close against reality lives on the Superforecasting desk.
Live instrument · dual forecast lanes
KELLY lane and user lane stay separate until settlement scores both.
KELLY lane
—
Independent system probability from KELLY (when last ask returned one).
User lane
—
Browser-local comparison only — never KELLY ground truth.
Settled
Open
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Mean Brier
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Audit expectation
- · Known vs unknown stated separately
- · ACT / TEST / WAIT when a decision is required
- · Proof or watch path instead of fake certainty
- · Graceful degrade when feeds/proof are cold